Chinese law forbids the export of art more than 200 years old. Under that law, neither the Qing bowl nor the eight other major pieces in the porcelain sale–among them a Ming-dynasty “Lotus Pond” jar that also went for more than $2 million–could be exported. Though Beijing’s Cultural Relics Bureau announced in March that Hong Kong can write its own laws governing exports after the handover, many experts aren’t convinced that China won’t interfere. Hong Kong is the greatest source of Chinese art in the world, and from the tourist antiques shops on Hollywood Road to the pricey auction rooms at Sotheby’s and Christie’s, there’s high anxiety. “Nobody knows what will happen,” says Eskenazi. “In the worst-case scenario, this could be the last time it may be possible to replenish the market. Where is the art going to come from?”
Much of the art in Hong Kong has been coming illegally from the mainland. Scavenging peasants have made fortunes looting ancient tombs and other archeological sites and smuggling everything from Han-dynasty figurines to Tang-dynasty ceramic horses into Hong Kong. “If the penalty for smuggling these things out of China is death,” says London-based fine-arts shipper David Jackson, “it’s hard to believe Beijing will allow this stuff to move out of Hong Kong freely.” There’s also fear that with fewer fine pieces available, the market will be flooded with forgeries. As it is, the handiwork of mainland forgers–some even said to be former restoration experts from Beijing’s Palace Museum–already crosses the border easily into Hong Kong.
In the face of this threat, Hong Kong collectors have been quietly shipping their best pieces overseas, either to second homes or into high-security warehouses. Anthony Lin, managing director of Christie’s Asia, estimates that 70 to 80 percent of the items bought by Hong Kong collectors in recent years have been sent overseas, many to Christie’s own vaults in London. Other collectors are making long-term loans to foreign museums. Yip Shing Yiu, a Hong Kong dermatologist who owns what may be the world’s largest collection of Ming-dynasty furniture, has loaned much of his collection to a museum in Singapore, as well as to the Arthur Sackler Gallery in Washington, D.C., and to the Denver Art Museum. Hong Kong’s worries have also boosted the prospects for the Phoenix Art Museum, which has greatly expanded its Asian department thanks to loans from Hong Kong.
But Beijing may realize that if it cracks down too hard, too fast, it could kill a golden goose. “The Chinese government isn’t stupid,” says Alice Lam, a cochairman of Sotheby’s Asia. “If they tried to stop the antique business, they could ruin Hong Kong.” China may also be counting on some of its own newly rich tycoons becoming buyers and, in effect, reimporting national treasures back to the mainland.
The rise of a thriving art market and rich collectors within China is good news for Hong Kong dealers threatened with a tightening of export rules. But it’s no comfort to foreign dealers trying to supply the blossoming demand for Chinese art and antiques in the United States and Europe. James Lally, former head of Sotheby’s North America and now owner of an Asian gallery in New York, is trying to remain optimistic. The situation “could remain ambiguous for a long time,” he said after purchasing several pieces at the recent Hong Kong auctions. And Christie’s and Sotheby’s aren’t ready to back off: both houses are planning auctions in the months after the handover. Whether the audience will still be applauding wildly, no one can say.
